A week into one of the most audacious military campaigns in modern American history, President Donald Trump’s central bet — that sustained bombing and psychological pressure would break the Iranian government — has not yet paid off. Iran’s leadership is battered, its military degraded, and its population suffering. But the regime is still standing, still fighting, and still showing no signs of the internal collapse Trump is counting on.
The military campaign has been extraordinarily aggressive. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s most heavily fortified assets, dropping dozens of 2,000-pound penetrating bombs on buried missile sites. A major Iranian warship has been struck and possibly sunk. Israel has issued mass evacuation orders in Lebanon and devastated Hezbollah’s command infrastructure in Beirut. The defense secretary has promised a dramatic surge in American firepower. The IDF chief has promised undisclosed new operations.
Iran has absorbed the blows and kept fighting. The Revolutionary Guards have launched missiles and drones at US military bases across the Gulf. Additional missiles have been fired at Israel. Hezbollah has maintained its rocket campaign in southern Lebanon. Iranian state television has broadcast mass mourning for the slain supreme leader, alongside messages of defiance. The leadership council has begun planning for a successor. No senior military or political figures have publicly broken with the regime.
Trump’s theory of the case rests on the Iranian public rising up against its government, as they have periodically threatened to do in the past. He has appealed directly to Iranians, promising immunity and warning of destruction. But Iran’s internet has been reduced to approximately 1% of normal capacity, making it difficult for those messages to reach their intended audience. And an airstrike on a girls’ school that killed more than 100 students may have provided the regime with propaganda that pushes the public closer to it, not away from it.
The international isolation of the campaign has also complicated matters. No major ally has joined the offensive. The UN has condemned the escalation. European governments are alarmed. Gulf states are caught in an impossible position. The UK has provided support but avoided offensive operations. Trump is betting that American and Israeli military power alone can collapse a government with 80 million people behind it. History suggests that is a very difficult bet to win.