Iran’s military issued a chilling warning Thursday that oil prices could reach $200 a barrel if the current conflict continues, as its forces carried out fresh strikes on energy targets across the Gulf region and Brent crude hovered near $100. The warning, delivered by an Iranian military spokesperson, was framed as a consequence of what Tehran described as American destabilization of the region. Markets took the threat seriously, as the physical disruption to oil supply is already at historically significant levels.
Iranian forces struck merchant vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, including the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq halted all oil exports following attacks on nearby tankers. Bahrain placed the Muharraq Governorate under shelter-in-place orders after fuel tanks were hit. Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal terminal after drone strikes on a neighboring port.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 a barrel before settling around $98. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. The oil price has climbed from $60 at the start of the year to a peak of $119 this week, representing a dramatic and rapid reordering of global energy economics. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28, limiting supply access.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude — a historic record — from reserves held by 32 member nations. The United States committed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump, who vowed to “finish the job” in Iran, said the release would reduce prices as the conflict nears resolution.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid flagged mounting stagflation risk. Asian equity markets fell and European natural gas gained 7.7%.